I TOLD YOU SO 2

Well, the gloves are off. Re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic is going to be a spectator sport at Labour Party Conference. Some of us have more constructive moves up our sleeves. Watch this space.......

I DON'T MEAN TO DEPRESS YOU BUT.......

This is what actually happened to all those centre-left amendments at Warwick. Or at least the view from a councillor in Darlington. Gallows humour, I suppose, that the Centre Left Grassroots Alliance is absurdly dubbed "far left". In truth, it shows just how far removed the NPF is from the rest of us. As Duncan Hall says on Labourhome "fraudulent and useless." Worse, steering this Party to crushing electoral defeat .Pretty depressing stuff.


What was striking was how marginalised the far left were during these votes. The heirs to the Bennite tendancy in the Party are now coalesced around the Grassroots Alliance, a group which does secure some members on the Party's National Executive Committee via internal elections. At Warwick, where they pressed for decisions to abandon Trident, for example, or overturn our academies policy in education, they lost overwhelmingly. In most votes, where 161 delegates were present, the Grassroots Alliance got fewer than 10 and in most cases around 5 votes.
It shows just how distant the far left is in Labour politics now from the mainstream, and that Gordon Brown leads a united party. Clearly with the economic outlook looking uncertain and potentially negative, the Party is suffering in the polls. Gleeful Tories are assuming some kind of 1997 meltdown in two years time. The difference I think is that we are now, and do not appear to be a divided party in the way the Conservatives did then, over Euurope and other issues. If the economic situation begins to improve, and with a coherent manifesto for the next 5 years in place, we are much better placed to stage a recovery

GAME UP FOR GORDON

I think it was Harold MacMillan who said that "events, dear boy, events" govern political successes and failures. And apologies for not blogging earlier today but like many others in these very difficult times am fire-fighting financial Armageddon and trying to work out how to survive. Kind of stops one feeling creative.....
This much I know. Gordon Brown has had it. The reality is anyone, and I mean ANYONE, would deliver better election results than the co-architect of New Labour has a cat in hell's of doing.
Glasgow East , if lost, will spell the end for Gordon Brown. I have that on reliable authority which I am not at liberty to distribute. Let's just say it's a senior Labour figure.
Now I think that's a sad end to a political career which started so spectacularly well and if only Gordon had hung on to his socialism but frankly I am more concerned now about the many decent Labour MPs who will go to the slaughter if Brown refuses to go quietly.
What we are looking at now is basically a salvage operation - a damage limitation strategy. I have not very much time for Jack Straw. Nor Alan Johnson. But they are, if truth be told, the likely caretakers. Miliband won't go anywhere near this extremely poisoned chalice. In any case, he could be out at the next election
My take is this. If either of them have the Party's interests at heart ( and they probably do) now is the time to go to Gordon and say - you had your chance, you've messed it up, now our priority is saving the Labour Party from annihiliation. The Tories do it. And now must we.
Or we may never have a Labour Government again in my lifetime.

GLASGOW EAST - THE FINAL TIPPING POINT?

I have just finished writing a piece about a wholefood co-operative in Glasgow .
In a previous life, I used to travel up to Glasgow every other weekend and one of my abiding memories is George Galloway, then Labour MP for Hillhead, standing on top of a battle bus and singing "Things Can Only Get Better" at the top of his voice. That ( as if you didn't know) was 1997.
Now it seems things can only get worse for Gordon Brown, who is now facing the grisly prospect of another by-election - and one which could oust him from office.
If Labour loses this constituency I tend to agree that it's curtains for GB. But IMHO that is the LAST thing which New Labour wants to see. Why? Staring reality in the face the truth is he would be replaced by a Government figure like Alan Johnson or Jack Straw. Miliband won't touch it with a bargepole ( though he may be forced to) as taking Labour to election defeat would spell the end of his career.
The harsh reality is however that 2010 could also spell THE END for Miliband and most of the current Cabinet. Who will be left? A frighteningly small rump of around 150 or so MPs ( if we're lucky) .As the vultures gather round the corpse of New Labour, it looks as though we're in an endgame which could see disaster for all of us - on the left as well as the centre and right. In the run-up to the next Election, we must endeavour to do our damndest to hang onto what constituencies we can. Because they are all at risk......In West Yorkshire, we could be wiped out.

GETTING OUT OF THE ABYSS

There ARE ways in which Labour could avoid catastrophe at the next election. Many are outlined here and here . These are not the policies of what Neal Lawson so charmingly refers to as "the wilderness."
The list below also outlines some of the policies which would get us OUT of the wilderness we are heading for unless Labour changes direction - fast.
If they look familiar, that's because most formed part of John McDonnell's May Manifesto. Which many people signed.
In the light of the latest opinion polls, it needs to be said again. The Labour left does NOT want to see the Tories win at the next election ,But it is only by chaging direction that we stand a cat in hell's of avoiding disaster. As follows

• Nailing the 10p tax mistake by the introduction of a fair tax system removing the low paid from taxation and ensuring the wealthiest and corporations pay their fair share
• An increase in the basic state pension, immediately restoring the link with earnings, lifting people off means tested benefits and providing free care for the elderly
• An immediate start on a large scale council house building programme and assistance for those facing repossession
• Immediate end to programme of local Post Office closures and liberalisation of postal services
• An end to the privatisation of our public services
• A new pay deal for public sector workers to protect their living standards and tackle low pay
• Abolishing tuition fees and restoring maintenance grants for all students
• Scrapping ID cards and abandoning 42 days detention
• Introduction of a Trade Union Freedom Bill and measures to protect temporary and agency workers
• Rejecting the proposals to renew Trident

ONE YEAR ON - GUARDIAN POLL PREDICTS TORY LANDSLIDE

There are some who read this blog who think I should be a bit more positive about Gordon Brown. Today's Guardian poll explains why there is little to be positive about.
One year after I was lectured, harried and shouted at by right-wingers for saying publicly that Brown's "coronation" would be a disaster for the Party. here is where we are.
74 per cent in a new Guardian/ICM poll say that he has been a change for the worse compared with Tony Blair, and only 24% think Labour has a chance of winning the next election while he remains leader.
The poll also gives the Conservatives a record 20-point lead over Labour, six points up on last month. Labour support has fallen two points to 25%, the lowest recorded in the ICM polls, which began in 1984.
Conservative support, at 45%, is at a 20-year high. That would give David Cameron a landslide victory as big as Labour's win in 1997, with some 400 seats. Labour might be reduced to well under 200 MPs, with many ministers losing their seats. The Tories would retain Crewe and Nantwich, won in a byelection last month, while Labour would lose previously safe seats such as Wakefield.
A year ago, Labour had a four-point lead over the Tories in the June Guardian/ICM poll. Support for the party, at 39%, was 14 points higher than today. Well done Gordon . Well done New Labour. You have taken us from the prospect of a modest election win 12 months ago to complete catastrophe.

THEIR GREATEST WEAPON?

Margaret Thatcher is reported to have said that Gordon Brown is the "greatest weapon in the Tories' armoury. He is certainly doing a great job for their poll ratings. A poll in today's Telegraph puts Labour on its lowest poll ratings ever - on current form, Labour gets less seats than it did in 1983. Significant because the Foot regime is the one oft quoted by New labour as the benchmark of why the left cannot ever return to its formerfooting within the Party.
I have lobbied my local MP on the 42 days issue and I hope others locally do the same. Wednesday is when the Commons vote and in many ways it is a no-win situation for Gordon . Largely, one must conclude, a situation entirely of his own making.
Meanwhile Charles Clarke has been indiscreet in a late-night bar situation, not an unprecedented occurrence. As things stand, Labouris going to hell in a handcart. All we can do at present is try and salvage what we can.
On Tuesday night my Branch meets to nominate a candidate. I hope it makes the right decision in the interests of retaining this seat at the next election. Which is someone unafraid to stand aside from the New Labour car crash unfolding in front of us. Someone who can motivate activists utterly demoralised and disillusioned .
Now I'm off to enjoy a glorious sunny day ........